Source code for mlfinpy.ensemble.sb_bagging

"""
Implementation of Sequentially Bootstrapped Bagging Classifier using sklearn's library as base class.
"""

import itertools
import numbers
from abc import ABCMeta, abstractmethod
from warnings import warn

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from joblib import Parallel, delayed
from sklearn.base import ClassifierMixin, RegressorMixin
from sklearn.ensemble import BaggingClassifier, BaggingRegressor
from sklearn.ensemble._bagging import BaseBagging
from sklearn.ensemble._base import _partition_estimators
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, r2_score
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier, DecisionTreeRegressor
from sklearn.utils import (
    check_array,
    check_consistent_length,
    check_random_state,
    check_X_y,
)
from sklearn.utils.random import sample_without_replacement
from sklearn.utils.validation import has_fit_parameter

from mlfinpy.sampling.bootstrapping import get_ind_matrix, seq_bootstrap

MAX_INT = np.iinfo(np.int32).max


# pylint: disable=too-many-ancestors
# pylint: disable=too-many-instance-attributes
# pylint: disable=too-many-branches
# pylint: disable=too-many-locals
# pylint: disable=too-many-arguments
# pylint: disable=too-many-statements
# pylint: disable=invalid-name
# pylint: disable=protected-access
# pylint: disable=len-as-condition
# pylint: disable=attribute-defined-outside-init
# pylint: disable=bad-super-call
# pylint: disable=no-else-raise


def indices_to_mask(indices, n_samples):
    """Convert indices to boolean mask."""
    mask = np.zeros(n_samples, dtype=bool)
    mask[indices] = True
    return mask


def _generate_random_features(random_state, bootstrap, n_population, n_samples):
    """Draw randomly sampled indices."""
    # Draw sample indices
    if bootstrap:
        indices = random_state.randint(0, n_population, n_samples)
    else:
        indices = sample_without_replacement(n_population, n_samples, random_state=random_state)

    return indices


def _generate_bagging_indices(random_state, bootstrap_features, n_features, max_features, max_samples, ind_mat):
    """Randomly draw feature and sample indices."""
    # Get valid random state
    random_state = check_random_state(random_state)

    # Draw indices
    feature_indices = _generate_random_features(random_state, bootstrap_features, n_features, max_features)
    sample_indices = seq_bootstrap(ind_mat, sample_length=max_samples, random_state=random_state)

    return feature_indices, sample_indices


def _parallel_build_estimators(
    n_estimators, ensemble, X, y, ind_mat, sample_weight, seeds, total_n_estimators, verbose
):
    """Private function used to build a batch of estimators within a job."""
    # Retrieve settings
    n_samples, n_features = X.shape
    max_features = ensemble._max_features
    max_samples = ensemble._max_samples
    bootstrap_features = ensemble.bootstrap_features
    support_sample_weight = has_fit_parameter(ensemble.estimator_, "sample_weight")

    if not support_sample_weight and sample_weight is not None:
        raise ValueError("The base estimator doesn't support sample weight")

    # Build estimators
    estimators = []
    estimators_features = []
    estimators_indices = []

    for i in range(n_estimators):
        if verbose > 1:
            print(
                "Building estimator %d of %d for this parallel run "
                "(total %d)..." % (i + 1, n_estimators, total_n_estimators)
            )

        random_state = np.random.RandomState(seeds[i])
        estimator = ensemble._make_estimator(append=False, random_state=random_state)

        # Draw random feature, sample indices
        features, indices = _generate_bagging_indices(
            random_state, bootstrap_features, n_features, max_features, max_samples, ind_mat
        )

        # Draw samples, using sample weights, and then fit
        if support_sample_weight:
            if sample_weight is None:
                curr_sample_weight = np.ones((n_samples,))
            else:
                curr_sample_weight = sample_weight.copy()

            sample_counts = np.bincount(indices, minlength=n_samples)
            curr_sample_weight *= sample_counts

            estimator.fit(X[:, features], y, sample_weight=curr_sample_weight)

        else:
            estimator.fit((X[indices])[:, features], y[indices])

        estimators.append(estimator)
        estimators_features.append(features)
        estimators_indices.append(indices)

    return estimators, estimators_features, estimators_indices


class SequentiallyBootstrappedBaseBagging(BaseBagging, metaclass=ABCMeta):
    """
    Base class for Sequentially Bootstrapped Classifier and Regressor, extension of sklearn's BaseBagging
    """

    @abstractmethod
    def __init__(
        self,
        samples_info_sets,
        price_bars,
        estimator=None,
        n_estimators=10,
        max_samples=1.0,
        max_features=1.0,
        bootstrap_features=False,
        oob_score=False,
        warm_start=False,
        n_jobs=None,
        random_state=None,
        verbose=0,
    ):
        super().__init__(
            estimator=estimator,
            n_estimators=n_estimators,
            bootstrap=True,
            max_samples=max_samples,
            max_features=max_features,
            bootstrap_features=bootstrap_features,
            oob_score=oob_score,
            warm_start=warm_start,
            n_jobs=n_jobs,
            random_state=random_state,
            verbose=verbose,
        )

        # pylint: disable=invalid-name
        self.samples_info_sets = samples_info_sets
        self.price_bars = price_bars
        self.ind_mat = get_ind_matrix(samples_info_sets, price_bars)
        # Used for create get ind_matrix subsample during cross-validation
        self.timestamp_int_index_mapping = pd.Series(index=samples_info_sets.index, data=range(self.ind_mat.shape[1]))

        self.X_time_index = None  # Timestamp index of X_train

    def fit(self, X, y, sample_weight=None):
        """
        Build a Sequentially Bootstrapped Bagging ensemble of estimators from the training
        set (X, y).
        Parameters
        ----------
        X : (array-like, sparse matrix) of shape = [n_samples, n_features]
            The training input samples. Sparse matrices are accepted only if
            they are supported by the base estimator.
        y : (array-like), shape = [n_samples]
            The target values (class labels in classification, real numbers in
            regression).
        sample_weight : (array-like), shape = [n_samples] or None
            Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
            Note that this is supported only if the base estimator supports
            sample weighting.
        Returns
        -------
        self : (object)
        """
        return self._fit(X, y, self.max_samples, sample_weight=sample_weight)

    def _fit(self, X, y, max_samples=None, max_depth=None, sample_weight=None):
        """Build a Sequentially Bootstrapped Bagging ensemble of estimators from the training
           set (X, y).
        Parameters
        ----------
        X : (array-like, sparse matrix) of shape = [n_samples, n_features]
            The training input samples. Sparse matrices are accepted only if
            they are supported by the base estimator.
        y : (array-like), shape = [n_samples]
            The target values (class labels in classification, real numbers in
            regression).
        max_samples : (int or float), optional (default=None)
            Argument to use instead of self.max_samples.
        max_depth : (int), optional (default=None)
            Override value used when constructing base estimator. Only
            supported if the base estimator has a max_depth parameter.
        sample_weight : (array-like), shape = [n_samples] or None
            Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
            Note that this is supported only if the base estimator supports
            sample weighting.
        """
        # Check if X is a DataFrame and keep the features name
        if isinstance(X, pd.DataFrame):
            self.feature_names_in_ = X.columns
        else:
            self.feature_names_in_ = None

        random_state = check_random_state(self.random_state)

        self.X_time_index = X.index  # Remember X index for future sampling

        # Generate subsample ind_matrix (we need this during subsampling cross_validation)
        subsampled_ind_mat = self.ind_mat[:, self.timestamp_int_index_mapping.loc[self.X_time_index]]

        # Convert data (X is required to be 2d and indexable)
        X, y = check_X_y(X, y, ["csr", "csc"], dtype=None, force_all_finite=False, multi_output=True)
        if sample_weight is not None:
            sample_weight = check_array(sample_weight, ensure_2d=False)
            check_consistent_length(y, sample_weight)

        # Remap output
        n_samples, self.n_features_ = X.shape
        self._n_samples = n_samples
        y = self._validate_y(y)

        # Check parameters
        self._validate_estimator()

        # Validate max_samples
        if not isinstance(max_samples, (numbers.Integral, np.integer)):
            max_samples = int(max_samples * X.shape[0])

        if not (0 < max_samples <= X.shape[0]):
            raise ValueError("max_samples must be in (0, n_samples]")

        # Store validated integer row sampling value
        self._max_samples = max_samples

        # Validate max_features
        if isinstance(self.max_features, (numbers.Integral, np.integer)):
            max_features = self.max_features
        elif isinstance(self.max_features, float):
            max_features = self.max_features * self.n_features_
        else:
            raise ValueError("max_features must be int or float")

        if not (0 < max_features <= self.n_features_):
            raise ValueError("max_features must be in (0, n_features]")

        max_features = max(1, int(max_features))

        # Store validated integer feature sampling value
        self._max_features = max_features

        if self.warm_start and self.oob_score:
            raise ValueError("Out of bag estimate only available" " if warm_start=False")

        if not self.warm_start or not hasattr(self, "estimators_"):
            # Free allocated memory, if any
            self.estimators_ = []
            self.estimators_features_ = []
            self.sequentially_bootstrapped_samples_ = []

        n_more_estimators = self.n_estimators - len(self.estimators_)

        if n_more_estimators < 0:
            raise ValueError(
                "n_estimators=%d must be larger or equal to "
                "len(estimators_)=%d when warm_start==True" % (self.n_estimators, len(self.estimators_))
            )

        elif n_more_estimators == 0:
            warn("Warm-start fitting without increasing n_estimators does not " "fit new trees.")
            return self

        # Parallel loop
        n_jobs, n_estimators, starts = _partition_estimators(n_more_estimators, self.n_jobs)
        total_n_estimators = sum(n_estimators)

        # Advance random state to state after training
        # the first n_estimators
        if self.warm_start and len(self.estimators_) > 0:
            random_state.randint(MAX_INT, size=len(self.estimators_))

        seeds = random_state.randint(MAX_INT, size=n_more_estimators)
        self._seeds = seeds

        # pylint: disable=C0330
        all_results = Parallel(
            n_jobs=n_jobs,
            verbose=self.verbose,
        )(
            delayed(_parallel_build_estimators)(
                n_estimators[i],
                self,
                X,
                y,
                subsampled_ind_mat,
                sample_weight,
                seeds[starts[i] : starts[i + 1]],
                total_n_estimators,
                verbose=self.verbose,
            )
            for i in range(n_jobs)
        )

        # Reduce
        self.estimators_ += list(itertools.chain.from_iterable(t[0] for t in all_results))
        self.estimators_features_ += list(itertools.chain.from_iterable(t[1] for t in all_results))
        self.sequentially_bootstrapped_samples_ += list(itertools.chain.from_iterable(t[2] for t in all_results))

        if self.oob_score:
            self._set_oob_score(X, y)

        return self


[docs] class SequentiallyBootstrappedBaggingClassifier( SequentiallyBootstrappedBaseBagging, BaggingClassifier, ClassifierMixin ): """ A Sequentially Bootstrapped Bagging classifier is an ensemble meta-estimator that fits base classifiers each on random subsets of the original dataset generated using Sequential Bootstrapping sampling procedure and then aggregate their individual predictions (either by voting or by averaging) to form a final prediction. Such a meta-estimator can typically be used as a way to reduce the variance of a black-box estimator (e.g., a decision tree), by introducing randomization into its construction procedure and then making an ensemble out of it. Parameters ---------- samples_info_sets : pd.Series, The information range on which each record is constructed from *samples_info_sets.index*: Time when the information extraction started. *samples_info_sets.value*: Time when the information extraction ended. price_bars : pd.DataFrame, Price bars used in samples_info_sets generation estimator : object or None, optional (default=None) The base estimator to fit on random subsets of the dataset. If None, then the base estimator is a decision tree. n_estimators : int, optional (default=10) The number of base estimators in the ensemble. max_samples : int or float, optional (default=1.0) The number of samples to draw from X to train each base estimator. If int, then draw `max_samples` samples. If float, then draw `max_samples * X.shape[0]` samples. max_features : int or float, optional (default=1.0) The number of features to draw from X to train each base estimator. If int, then draw `max_features` features. If float, then draw `max_features * X.shape[1]` features. bootstrap_features : bool, optional (default=False) Whether features are drawn with replacement. oob_score : bool, optional (default=False) Whether to use out-of-bag samples to estimate the generalization error. warm_start : bool, optional (default=False) When set to True, reuse the solution of the previous call to fit and add more estimators to the ensemble, otherwise, just fit a whole new ensemble. n_jobs : int or None, optional (default=None) The number of jobs to run in parallel for both `fit` and `predict`. ``None`` means 1 unless in a :obj:`joblib.parallel_backend` context. ``-1`` means using all processors. random_state : int, RandomState instance or None, optional (default=None) If int, random_state is the seed used by the random number generator; If RandomState instance, random_state is the random number generator; If None, the random number generator is the RandomState instance used by `np.random`. verbose : int, optional (default=0) Controls the verbosity when fitting and predicting. Attributes ---------- estimator_ : estimator The base estimator from which the ensemble is grown. estimators_ : list of estimators The collection of fitted base estimators. estimators_samples_ : list of arrays The subset of drawn samples (i.e., the in-bag samples) for each base estimator. Each subset is defined by an array of the indices selected. estimators_features_ : list of arrays The subset of drawn features for each base estimator. classes_ : array of shape = [n_classes] The classes labels. n_classes_ : int or list The number of classes. oob_score_ : float Score of the training dataset obtained using an out-of-bag estimate. oob_decision_function_ : array of shape = [n_samples, n_classes] Decision function computed with out-of-bag estimate on the training set. If n_estimators is small it might be possible that a data point was never left out during the bootstrap. In this case, `oob_decision_function_` might contain NaN. """ def __init__( self, samples_info_sets, price_bars, estimator=None, n_estimators=10, max_samples=1.0, max_features=1.0, bootstrap_features=False, oob_score=False, warm_start=False, n_jobs=None, random_state=None, verbose=0, ): super().__init__( samples_info_sets=samples_info_sets, price_bars=price_bars, estimator=estimator, n_estimators=n_estimators, max_samples=max_samples, max_features=max_features, bootstrap_features=bootstrap_features, oob_score=oob_score, warm_start=warm_start, n_jobs=n_jobs, random_state=random_state, verbose=verbose, ) def _validate_estimator(self): """Check the estimator and set the estimator_ attribute.""" super(BaggingClassifier, self)._validate_estimator(default=DecisionTreeClassifier()) def _set_oob_score(self, X, y): n_samples = y.shape[0] n_classes_ = self.n_classes_ predictions = np.zeros((n_samples, n_classes_)) for estimator, samples, features in zip( self.estimators_, self.sequentially_bootstrapped_samples_, self.estimators_features_ ): # Create mask for OOB samples mask = ~indices_to_mask(samples, n_samples) if hasattr(estimator, "predict_proba"): predictions[mask, :] += estimator.predict_proba((X[mask, :])[:, features]) else: p = estimator.predict((X[mask, :])[:, features]) j = 0 for i in range(n_samples): if mask[i]: predictions[i, p[j]] += 1 j += 1 if (predictions.sum(axis=1) == 0).any(): warn( "Some inputs do not have OOB scores. " "This probably means too few estimators were used " "to compute any reliable oob estimates." ) oob_decision_function = np.divide( predictions, predictions.sum(axis=1)[:, np.newaxis], out=np.zeros_like(predictions), where=predictions.sum(axis=1)[:, np.newaxis] != 0, ) oob_score = accuracy_score(y, np.argmax(predictions, axis=1)) self.oob_decision_function_ = oob_decision_function self.oob_score_ = oob_score
[docs] class SequentiallyBootstrappedBaggingRegressor(SequentiallyBootstrappedBaseBagging, BaggingRegressor, RegressorMixin): """ A Sequentially Bootstrapped Bagging regressor is an ensemble meta-estimator that fits base regressors each on random subsets of the original dataset and then aggregates their individual predictions to form a final prediction. Parameters ---------- samples_info_sets : pd.Series The information range on which each record is constructed from *samples_info_sets.index*: Time when the information extraction started. *samples_info_sets.value*: Time when the information extraction ended. price_bars : pd.DataFrame Price bars used in samples_info_sets generation estimator : object or None, optional (default=None) The base estimator to fit on random subsets of the dataset. If None, then the base estimator is a decision tree. n_estimators : int, optional (default=10) The number of base estimators in the ensemble. max_samples : int or float, optional (default=1.0) The number of samples to draw from X to train each base estimator. If int, then draw `max_samples` samples. If float, then draw `max_samples * X.shape[0]` samples. max_features : int or float, optional (default=1.0) The number of features to draw from X to train each base estimator. If int, then draw `max_features` features. If float, then draw `max_features * X.shape[1]` features. bootstrap_features : bool, optional (default=False) Whether features are drawn with replacement. oob_score : bool Whether to use out-of-bag samples to estimate the generalization error. warm_start : bool, optional (default=False) When set to True, reuse the solution of the previous call to fit and add more estimators to the ensemble, otherwise, just fit a whole new ensemble. n_jobs : int or None, optional (default=None) The number of jobs to run in parallel for both `fit` and `predict`. ``None`` means 1 unless in a :obj:`joblib.parallel_backend` context. ``-1`` means using all processors. random_state : int, RandomState instance or None, optional (default=None) If int, random_state is the seed used by the random number generator; If RandomState instance, random_state is the random number generator; If None, the random number generator is the RandomState instance used by `np.random`. verbose : int, optional (default=0) Controls the verbosity when fitting and predicting. Attributes ---------- estimators_ : list of estimators The collection of fitted sub-estimators. estimators_samples_ : list of arrays The subset of drawn samples (i.e., the in-bag samples) for each base estimator. Each subset is defined by an array of the indices selected. estimators_features_ : list of arrays The subset of drawn features for each base estimator. oob_score_ : float Score of the training dataset obtained using an out-of-bag estimate. oob_prediction_ : array of shape = [n_samples] Prediction computed with out-of-bag estimate on the training set. If n_estimators is small it might be possible that a data point was never left out during the bootstrap. In this case, `oob_prediction_` might contain NaN. """ def __init__( self, samples_info_sets, price_bars, estimator=None, n_estimators=10, max_samples=1.0, max_features=1.0, bootstrap_features=False, oob_score=False, warm_start=False, n_jobs=None, random_state=None, verbose=0, ): super().__init__( samples_info_sets=samples_info_sets, price_bars=price_bars, estimator=estimator, n_estimators=n_estimators, max_samples=max_samples, max_features=max_features, bootstrap_features=bootstrap_features, oob_score=oob_score, warm_start=warm_start, n_jobs=n_jobs, random_state=random_state, verbose=verbose, ) def _validate_estimator(self): """Check the estimator and set the estimator_ attribute.""" super(BaggingRegressor, self)._validate_estimator(default=DecisionTreeRegressor()) def _set_oob_score(self, X, y): n_samples = y.shape[0] predictions = np.zeros((n_samples,)) n_predictions = np.zeros((n_samples,)) for estimator, samples, features in zip( self.estimators_, self.sequentially_bootstrapped_samples_, self.estimators_features_ ): # Create mask for OOB samples mask = ~indices_to_mask(samples, n_samples) predictions[mask] += estimator.predict((X[mask, :])[:, features]) n_predictions[mask] += 1 if (n_predictions == 0).any(): warn( "Some inputs do not have OOB scores. " "This probably means too few estimators were used " "to compute any reliable oob estimates." ) n_predictions[n_predictions == 0] = 1 predictions /= n_predictions self.oob_prediction_ = predictions self.oob_score_ = r2_score(y, predictions)